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As the magnitude and frequency of high DA occurrences are projected to increase as a result of climate change, it is imperative for military mission planners and acquisition officers to comprehend and utilize these projections in their decision-making processes.ġ) Aircraft performance impacts-fixed wingįor fixed wing, high DA affects the ability of an aircraft to land and/or take off within a very short distance. Impacts corresponding to DA thresholds are identified and integrated into risk probability matrices enabling quantifiable comparisons. In this research, downscaled and bias-corrected maximum and minimum air temperatures for future time periods are collected and analyzed for a selected site: Little Rock Air Force Base, Arkansas.
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For rotary-wing aircraft, the performance impacts include reduced power margin, reduced maximum gross weight, reduced hover ceiling, and reduced rate of climb. For fixed-wing aircraft, the performance impacts include decreased maximum takeoff weight and increased true airspeed, which results in longer takeoff and landing distance. High DA impacts aircraft performance in the following ways: reduction in power because the engine takes in less air reduction in thrust because a propeller is less efficient in less dense air reduction in lift because less dense air exerts less force on the airfoils. The inclusion of dewpoint temperature in DA projections will become increasingly critical as minimum air temperatures rise. The frequency of higher DA will increase with the combination of higher air temperatures and higher dewpoint temperatures. Elevated density altitude (DA) reduces aircraft and engine performance and has a direct impact on operational capabilities. Increases in maximum and minimum air temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change will present challenges to aircraft performance. Mean frequency in percent of time period that aircraft performance thresholds are surpassed for a UH-60L with a maximum gross weight of 22 000 lbs at Little Rock AFB, using average monthly station pressure, the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and a 95% confidence interval. (a) Risk probability matrix for estimated C-130J aircraft performance thresholds at Little Rock AFB using mean station pressure of 1003 hPa, the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, and RCP8.–49 and (b) 2060–89. Percent of time period that defined aircraft performance thresholds are surpassed for a C-130J at Little Rock AFB using an annual station pressure of 1003 hPa, using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and a 95% confidence interval ( McRae 2018). (a) Risk probability matrix for DA threshold of 3000 ft for (a) June, (b) July, and (c) August at Little Rock AFB, using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and mean monthly station pressure. Risk probability matrix for DA threshold of (a) 1000 ft for November and (b) 2000 ft for May at Little Rock AFB, using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and mean monthly station pressure. Risk probability matrix for DA thresholds at Little Rock AFB, using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and monthly average station pressures for (a) observed (1970–99), (b) 2020–49, (c) 2040–69, and (d) 2060–89 ( McRae 2018). Percent of time period that defined moist DA thresholds are surpassed for Little Rock AFB using monthly average station pressures, the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and a 95% confidence interval ( McRae 2018).Ĭumulative distribution function plot of frequency of occurrence (in number of days) for a DA threshold of 500 ft with a specified 80% of time period superimposed for Little Rock AFB using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, with RCP8.5 ( McRae 2018). Graph starts with 13☌ to see more clearly the temperatures at which the highest frequency occurs. (b) The T max frequency of occurrence in mean number of days, Little Rock AFB, and RCP8.5 with 95% confidence interval. The graph starts at 25☌ to see more clearly the temperatures at which the highest frequency occurs. (a) The T min frequency of occurrence in mean number of days, Little Rock AFB, and RCP8.5 with 95% confidence interval. (a) Mean monthly T min for Little Rock AFB using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and a 95% confidence interval. (a) Mean monthly T max for Little Rock AFB using the 20 GCMs identified in Table 1, RCP8.5, and a 95% confidence interval.